Cases of Omicron will peak by February in Mumbai, says TIFR


The cases in the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic driven by the Omicron variant will peak between January 6 to 13 in Mumbai, and the fatalities by February, according to a modelling and data analysis carried out by scientists at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR). The analysis showed that in comparison with the second wave, the third surge will be manageable for the city as it will not overwhelm the medical facilities in terms of hospitalisations and oxygen requirements.

The simulator model has been developed by Sandeep Juneja and Daksh Mittal from the School of Technology and Computer Science, TIFR. While they have used this model to make projections during the first and second waves, the current analysis has been carried out after introducing the Omicron variant into the simulator.

The model has projected a timeline of the peak, but the scientists have refrained from projecting the number of cases. “It’s difficult to project the numbers because they largely depend on the testing strategy and who is getting tested, but our modelling shows that the peak hospitalisations will be about 50% to 70% of what we saw during the Delta wave,” said Juneja. He added that they have taken into account the bed occupancy in Dedicated Covid Hospitals and Dedicated Covid Health Centres as around 18,000 during the peak of the second wave.

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